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The Logic Of Not Voting

Posted by: Poster Image

Summary Argument: Voting is widely considered a sacred right and people who don't exercise their vote are often maligned. This article argues that there are valid reasons for not voting which are logically consistent with acting rationally.  1482 tokens
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     Consider a typical political election between two candidates. When you vote, it's a binary choice. You either vote for one candidate or the other. There's no way to split your vote between the two candidates. For example, if you like both candidates, but like one of the candidates slightly more. Active voting is either a 1 or 0. Not a fraction.
     If you don't vote, in a certain sense you are just voting along with the current proportion of the votes. You can do the math for all scenarios, but let's look at the most trivial example. Suppose the current vote split is 50%-50% between the two candidates. The final result would be exactly the same if you split your vote 50% between the two candidates. Here you would be voting 0.5 for one candidate and 0.5 for another. The key point is that your vote is not 1 or 0. It's fractional.
     But what if you don't want to vote with the crowd (by not voting)? What if you really prefer one candidate over the other? What possible reason could you have for not voting? After all, people have fought throughout history for the right to vote. Surely you are just metaphorically spitting-in-the-face of all those people by not voting?
     Well, not necessarily. Consider again the typical political election described above. Imagine that you support a candidate in a close race. But you believe that your candidate isn't being supported enough. That there are people who are not voting (i.e. doing passive fractional voting). And that the opponent candidate represents an unstable political movement. If you believe that by acquiescing the current election, you'd get to expose this instability, it's rational to not vote.
     This is just game theory in the form of credible threats. By not voting when you really want to vote, you are providing a credible threat to other people who should be voting. And by not voting you join with the other non-votes to lose. In a sense, you are penalizing your own cadre and yourself.
     How can this be rational? It's rational if you accomplish two things. If the winning side enacts bad policies that then further harms those who didn't vote (or even voted for the winner), this can spur them to vote in the next round. It also solidifies your threat as credible. That if you say you are not going to vote, then people need to understand that you are willing to lose a battle to win the war.
     But you need to be very careful what you wish for. Because if the movement which you assume to be self destructive, turns out to be stable. Then you've lost. You've surrendered the future without a fight. The other side can even stack the next round of the game so it's impossible for you to even vote again.
     All this means that you should vote if you have preferences that are different from the existing vote percentage and if you believe that the other side has a legitimate set of policies that will not cause a public backlash. But it doesn't mean that you should never not vote.

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