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Single Threaded Millennia Change

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Summary Argument: Events have different impacts depending on the underlying timescale. This article argues that society is a single threaded chain that plays out over millennia. Bad local events in the short term may actually be seen as good in the longer term.  836 tokens
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     Single events have different impacts depending on the underlying timescale. The actual impact depends on the timescale chosen. For example, an event that happens today that seems quite impactful, that is all over the news, may actually be forgotten ten years from now. Most short term events get swallowed up in history over the years as newer events overlay them in the long term. But when the event happens today, it seems to be vital. The timescale matters.
     Society runs on a single threaded time track. There is only one canonical version of history. Parallel histories are relegated to science fiction and quantum physics. In the everyday world, there is only one experiment run. And so you can't compare the world with a counterfactual. You can't take two identical timescales and compare them, where one society excludes some event that actually happened. Society's time is not multi-threaded. It's only one chain. Not parallel chains.
     A bad event in a person's lifespan seems crystal clear. You go broke or get cancer. These seem unambiguously bad. How could going broke be good? How could getting cancer and having your body ravaged and you dying be good? Similarly, if you are a rabid Anti-Trump Democrat, how could Trump being reelected president be a good thing to you? If you are a rabid Anti-Biden Republican, how could Biden being elected be good?
     A bad event in a single lifetime may be bad or good or trivial over millennia. You can never tell at the time of the event because of the single threaded nature of society. You can't run a competing experiment. The subsequent events are a chain that have no counterfactual. You can't see the world that would have occurred had Trump or Biden not been elected. You can only see the world as it is. And because this world is a chain over millennia, a single bad event can actually have long term consequences that turn out for the better. If you hate Trump, perhaps Trump getting elected triggers a new movement 100 years into the future that creates some new invention that saves humanity. If you hate Biden, perhaps his election throws the economy into a recession, but out of this recession comes some new invention that saves humanity.

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